Half-Time on My 2026 Predictions: My Confidence Was Inverted
In January I ranked how confident I was in each of five predictions. Six months in, that ranking is almost perfectly inverted — the two I was surest of are my worst calls, and the prediction I nearly waved away as too abstract became the story of the year.
I Got Rugpulled by Cowork. The Meter Is the Best Thing to Happen to Lawyer-Builders.
The meter that rugpulled my contract tool prices compute, not trust. That's exactly why the lawyer who can build it and vouch for it just got more valuable
Thinking in Loops: Finding the Frontier Without a Frontier Budget
Three days into scoring a legal benchmark, my tokens ran out. The fix wasn't a bigger budget or a better model — it was a different shape. On orchestration, loops, and reaching the frontier of what AI can do without a frontier budget.
My Agent Did the Legal Work. The Benchmark Gave It Zero.
Somewhere in my benchmark results sits a complete legal memorandum. Fifty-eight kilobytes of finished work: issues identified, analysis done,
Commentary: The Pitfalls of Seeking AI Advice From Lawyers
A sharp CNA commentary argues AI can't replace lawyers. It's aiming a very good argument at old technology — and missing the real threat.